A recent assessment by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) sheds light on the evolving perceptions and strategic priorities of India, Pakistan, and China in the South Asian region. The report highlights a significant shift in India’s focus, while reiterating Pakistan’s long-standing security concerns.
India’s Primary Concern: China
According to DIA Director Lt Gen Jeffrey Kruse’s worldwide threat assessment, India now views China as its “primary adversary.” This marks a crucial development, indicating that New Delhi’s strategic attention has increasingly shifted eastward. Despite recent military skirmishes with Pakistan, triggered by India’s “Operation Sindoor” on May 7 targeting terrorist infrastructure, Pakistan is now seen by India as more of an “ancillary security problem to be managed.”
The assessment underscores that tensions between India and China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) are “capable of escalating quickly.” India’s defense priorities are consequently geared towards demonstrating global leadership, countering China’s influence, and bolstering its own military strength. This includes strengthening bilateral defense partnerships in the Indian Ocean region through exercises, training, arms sales, and intelligence sharing. India is also prioritizing its “Make in India” initiative to build a robust domestic defense industry and modernize its military, as evidenced by recent tests of nuclear-capable missiles and the commissioning of its second nuclear-powered submarine.
Pakistan’s “Existential Threat”: India
In stark contrast, Pakistan continues to perceive India as an “existential threat.” This perception drives Pakistan’s ongoing development of tactical nuclear weapons, a strategy aimed at offsetting India’s conventional military superiority. The DIA report notes that Pakistan is actively modernizing its nuclear arsenal and likely procures WMD-applicable goods from foreign suppliers, primarily from China, often transshipped through various international hubs.
The assessment emphasizes the strong military and economic ties between Pakistan and China, with Pakistani forces regularly conducting combined military exercises with China’s PLA. Chinese-origin combat jets and missiles were notably used by Pakistan during the recent May 7-10 clashes with India.
Recent Clashes and Ceasefire
The report details the intense four-day clashes in mid-May, following India’s retaliatory strikes in response to the Pahalgam terror attack. These clashes involved drones, missiles, and long-range weapons. However, both Indian and Pakistani militaries ultimately “agreed to a full ceasefire” after multiple rounds of engagement, indicating a mutual understanding to de-escalate the situation.
Enduring Relationships and Shifting Dynamics
Despite the changing dynamics, India continues to maintain its relationship with Russia. This is seen as vital for India’s economic and defense objectives, and as a way to balance deepening Russia-China relations. While India has reduced its procurement of Russian military equipment, it still relies on Russian spare parts to maintain its substantial inventory of Russian-origin tanks and combat jets, crucial for countering perceived threats from both China and Pakistan.
This DIA assessment provides a crucial insight into the complex and evolving security landscape of South Asia, highlighting the strategic realignments and enduring concerns that shape the region’s geopolitical future.